Political risk insurers will have been watching recent events in South Africa carefully as President Cyril Ramaphosa faced the threat of impeachment proceedings against him.
However, the South African parliament has decided not to proceed. Aleix Montana, Africa Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft, warned “After surviving the impeachment vote, President Ramaphosa’s leadership will be tested again at the party’s national conference. We expect the ANC to re-elect Ramaphosa as the leader of the party, positioning him as the party’s presidential candidate for the 2024 election.
“The Phala Phala scandal has tainted Ramaphosa’s anti-corruption credentials and re-election campaign. But there is no viable alternative candidate in the ANC that can secure the political survival of the party. The ANC’s voting share has consistently decreased since the election of former President Jacob Zuma in 2009,” he added.
Mr Montana said “We still expect the ANC to win a parliamentary majority at the 2024 election, since opposition parties remain unable to capitalise on the ongoing political crisis within the ANC.
“If Ramaphosa were to be charged with corruption or other serious crimes, he would be forced to step down according to party rules. Such a scenario would further accelerate decline of the party and increase the likelihood of a coalition government emerging in South Africa.”
The risk of unrest has not disappeared, suggested Mr Montana, saying “The Zuma riots in July 2021 underscored how factionalism within the ANC can spark civil unrest. There is a risk that further instances of intra-party infighting spill over into violence on the streets once again, particularly as we approach the 2024 election.”
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