With both candidates threatening to contest the result of the upcoming Kenyan presidential election in the courts after the count, memories of the 2007 post-election mass violence have resurfaced, according to analysts Dragonfly.
The question is whether those fears are well founded or whether things have changed sufficiently. With political violence terrorism (PVT) insurers watching closely as events unfold, Tobias Wellner, senior intelligence analyst at Dragonfly, said there is a history of violence around Kenya elections and they have always been hotly contested, not just during the election but when the results are announced.
“We remember the ethnically charged violence of 2007-2008 when more than 1000 people were killed but a lot of things have changed,” he stressed.
Focusing mainly on two candidates: Raila Odinga who has built a more ethnically diverse ticket and William Ruto, current vice-president, who has built his campaign around the Rift Valley, Mr Wellner said: “In the run up to 9 August, we are watching where the political campaign rallies will be held – often flash points for unrest with both sides accusing the others of sending ‘goons’ to trigger unrest.”
He added: “The second thing we are looking at is a significant increase in fake news around polling day itself. Large protests or unrest are unlikely before polling day – unless one party calls for a boycott of the polls.”
Political analyst Tamara Naidoo stressed Kenya’s role as a regional powerhouse, so importance of the port of Mombasa as a regional hub could not be overstated. She warned it would have major implications for supply chains should unrest erupt there.
She added: “Since the Ukraine war, there have been high prices for fuel and food in Kenya. These could become opportunities for politicians to take the issues on the road in campaigning. Under-35s acutely affected by cost of living rises and suffer the highest levels of unemployment.
“There have been small protests organised in Nairobi but at this stage the protests are highly localised and there are no signs of high level of government interference. The risk is that the loser might choose to use these protests further.”
Mr Wellner said the most likely scenario is that there will be a few weeks of unrest in large cities. “Regardless of winner and loser, we anticipate the loser will challenge the vote. If that happens they are likely to go to the courts and how the supreme court will decide is hard to predict but regardless we can expect large demonstrations to keep pressure high on the court.”
Ms Naidoo said there are four points to watch, including ethnic rivalry; if politicians were to be arrested; if the police were accused of ethnically based violence; or if high-ranking politicians were physically attacked by supporters of the losing side.
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